Mike is your traditional tall, strong-armed quarterback that all the coaches are going to love watching when he wears the red vest in practice. He shows excellent arm strength and throws the ball with the type of velocity that will attract all the cold weather teams. He plays in an up tempo multi-formation offense and has the stats to attract those teams that evaluated draft eligible players by using advanced analytics as the main guide line in evaluating players. Mike has most of the physical athletic tools to be successful at the NFL level...on paper. He also has the overall intellectual talent to be successful at the NFL level. He fits the prototypical NFL quarterback size, arm strength and ability to throw from the pocket. The question is, then, why isn't he being thought of as THE top quarterback in this draft? Or is he?
Concerns...there are so many to list. He doesn't stand tall in the pocket against college pressure. He is not accurate throwing the ball when he is pressured. He is not athletic enough to extend plays, has no feel for the pocket and does not slide to negate pressure in the pocket. Mike is not in control of the offense and does not make the players around him better. When adversity strikes, Mike does not strike back. He lacks confidence in his own passing when in the red zone. Mike lacks the pure street instincts and adjustment skills when the play is in motion to be an impact quarterback right now. Did you notice not one of these issues would show up in an advance analytical evaluation of Mike's ability to be successful at the next level? I did.
Advanced analytics is nice and should be a tool all teams should use in evaluating players for the draft, but like I always say, numbers may not lie but they don't tell the whole truth either. If you evaluate Mike from an advanced analytical profile, he might be the best quarterback in this draft. But that's just not true. All the information in a computer evaluation is based on the opinion of the person compiling the information. It's that old theory: garbage in, garbage out. I can't tell you how many sacks at the college level are attributed to a player who did not get that sack. Or how many tackles a player has made in a game that he really did not make and yet, at the end of the game in the computer, that's what you will see. The teams that rely on advanced analytics for their main source of evaluating players in a draft will fail when drafting players. It's really that simple. Production is important, but it is not the end all. Size is important, but it is not the end all. Speed is important but, once again, it is not the end all. And finally, intangibles are a needed component to a player's success in the NFL but once again, it is not the end all. To be truly impactful in the NFL, a player has to have all of these characteristics, skills and talents. It's just to what degree they have them all that makes them draftable. Mike has the talent, but lacks the intangibles at this point of his career to be successful in the NFL. Maybe he can develop those intangibles, but that will take a whole lot of time and a work ethic to succeed beyond his athletic talent. Here is what I see on film in evaluating Mike for the NFL: his stats, strong arm and ability to throw the ball does not match the needed intangibles to win the big games at the NFL level.
Drew"The B.S. Detector" Boylhart