Drew’s Final Top 10 (plus 5) for the 2010 NFL Draft

Before you read this, please do not let your children in the room.  Your anger and shock may make you use language not suitable for children’s ears!  This top ten is based on film work; it is not based on what other sites or people may think.  It is not based on where a player might be drafted and it is not based on Rob’s value board.  Rob’s board is meant for you to see where a player will be drafted in this draft.  The talent board is meant to tell you what kind of talent I think the player has and if I think he will be successful at the next level no matter what round that player is selected in.  You get the best of both worlds with our two board system.  The players I list in my top ten might not sniff the 1^st round.  That might seem strange to you, but the truth is there are no two Top 10 boards that are alike and many teams during a draft have players listed in their Top 10 and with 1^st round grades that fall into the later rounds.  The Buffalo Bills had a first round grade on Trent Edwards (QB Stanford) and did not select him until the 3^rd round of that draft.   That’s why it is so amazing that Rob has the accuracy rate on his top 100 that he has.  Most years, I get burned pretty good because of who I list as a top ten player.  One year I had Ray Rice (RB Rutgers) drafted in the 2^nd round of the 2008 draft by the Ravens listed in my top ten.  I thought I was going to be water boarded that year.  The year the Jets drafted Nick Mangold (OC Ohio St) I was laughed at, ridiculed by “experts” in the field and former players on TV for listing him in my top ten.  I think the fact that the Jets traded back into the first round in the 2006 draft and selected Nick as well as Nick’s play on the field proved my point.   Don’t get me wrong:  I have had a few busts listed in my top ten also.  In 2005, I listed Mike Williams (WR USC) in my top ten after he had been out of football for a year.  I really had my head up my butt on that little gem of a selection!   I take a lot of shots with my top ten because I work off film to come to my opinions.   Recently I got a scathing e-mail from an agent because I did not list his client as a top ten pick who asked, “Who do you think you are?”  I always answer the same way:  I’m the guy watching the film to come to my conclusions and the film doesn’t lie — your client is not a top ten pick!  So here it goes…keep your blood pressure medication handy!    

1)   Tim Tebow – QB – Florida – First of all, before you start suggesting to yourself and friends what kind of idiot you think I might be, remember this…. I do not fall for hype. I do all my profiles and evaluations from film and my opinions on a player’s success are based on more than just athletic abilities. There are two potential franchise QB’s in this draft and Tim is #1.  He is a pure spread offense system QB with excellent accuracy, arm strength and leadership skills who could become the first pistol offense QB in the NFL.  Tim is a franchise QB because he understands his responsibilities to both sides of the ball and knows how to motivate the offense and protect the defense with his play on the field.  All QB’s entering the draft need some re-work of their mechanics, except for the great ones.  After all of this nonsense is over, Tim will throw the way he throws and win the way he wins.  For the team that drafts him, he is a once in a lifetime player and a marketing dream come true.  I call him Tim (Spartacus) Tebow because he will lead your favorite team and its fans from their despair.

2)  Ndamukong Suh – DT – Nebraska – He can play in a 1-gap or 2-gap defense and any one of the line positions in a 3-4 or 4-3 defense.   I call him Ndamu (The Great Kong) Suh.  He has Reggie White like talent!  To think that anybody would suggest that Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma (who is a one trick pony) has the talent and will impact as much or more than Suh shows you why there are so many players who are a bust as 1^st round draft picks.  Don’t get me wrong — Gerald has excellent talent, but he does everything based on his quickness and his quickness will be matched at the NFL level until he learns better techniques.

 3)  Russell Okung – LT – Oklahoma St – Russell is a pure Left Tackle who can play in any style offensive blocking system.  He has played a lot of snaps along the offensive line at a very high level, but his impact position for the next level is definitely at left tackle because of his quickness.  Russell has Tony Boselli “quick out of his stance” like talent.  He is a franchise left tackle and franchise left tackles improve three positions.  They make your left tackle position better, your left guard position play better and your quarterback position plays better also.  That’s what a franchise left tackle can mean to your offense.   

 4)  Sam Bradford – QB – Oklahoma – Sam is a franchise QB.  There are only two of these in this draft this year and Sam is the second.  He has the accuracy and leadership skills that a franchise QB needs to be successful and although he, too, has to rework his mechanics because under pressure he has a tendency to throw sidearm, Sam also has the athleticism to move in the pocket and roll out and throw on the run with accuracy.  Sam has played under center and in multiple styles of offensive sets.  I call him Sam (The Rubber Band Man) Bradford. 

 5)  Trent Williams – OL – Alabama – There are only two pure left tackles in this draft and Trent is definitely one of them.  Unlike other offensive lineman in this draft, Trent has the talent and the experience of being able to play multiple positions along the offensive line at a Pro Bowl level.  That is the hidden value when you draft Trent.   This year was Trent’s first year playing Left Tackle and he did an outstanding job.  Give him time and I’m sure he will be a Chris Samuels (LT Redskins) style of left tackle for years to come.   

 6)  Joe Haden – CB – Florida – There is a reason Joe was rated this high on everyone’s board before he worked out at the combine.  He is good.  That’s all that matters.  Joe is a pure shut down corner that can play in any style defense and impact on special teams and he can tackle.  I can’t believe that everyone wants to rate a safety who is faster, but is not as good a tackler, ahead of this kid.  A safety who doesn’t tackle!  This is not a track meet we are drafting for…this is football!  You go ahead and rate Eric as a top ten draft pick and hope he improves his tackling techniques.  I’ll draft Joe and have him shut down your best receiver.   

 7)  Sean Lee – LB – Penn St – Sean is technically the best linebacker in this draft.  He could use a little more size, but his talent, football intelligence and instincts are without question.  Injuries have kept him from being rated high in this draft.  To his credit, Sean has come back from those injuries, which says volumes about his character and work ethic.  Sean, throughout his college career, played multiple positions as an ILB and OLB and impacted at both positions.  He is an every down linebacker and shows excellent leadership skills through his play on the field.  This is one talented football player.  I did consider Rolando McClain (LB Alabama) as a top 10 pick at one time, but his medical situation is a lot more serious than everyone is suggesting and, for me personally, impacts his draft status and re-positions him for a later round.  The truth is, I would have rated Sean ahead of Rolando in my final top ten anyway. 

 8)  Toby Gerhart – RB – Stanford – Toby plays in a pro style offense with spread offense tendencies.  He is excellent at picking up blitzing LB’s; he’s smart and quick enough to follow and set up his blocks to make the most out of his running back skills.  He can catch the ball out of the backfield and is a good enough blocker to be used as an H–back, fullback or as a tail back in a one back set or two back set.  Toby is a franchise back.   I call him Toby (Gear Head) Gerhart because every offense needs to get into gear before it can get going and Toby is just that gear to get your offense going.   CJ Spiller (RB Clemson) is a nice back with excellent speed, but he is not a “carry the load back” like Toby is. 

 9) Eric Decker – WR – Minnesota –   Eric is the top wide receiver in this draft.  He is not the fastest, but he is the best.  Before he broke his foot, he was his team’s whole offense.  He was their leader and the teams coach on the field.  In most situations, wide receivers need a very good QB to be effective.  Eric is one of the few wide receivers who will turn that theory around.  He will make your average QB a star.  He runs excellent routes and is one of the toughest wide receivers I have seen come out in the draft in a long time.  He will move the chains and has the speed, hands and savvy to be a deep threat.  Eric is a #1 wide receiver and a player you can make the focal point of your passing game.  I originally had Arrelious Benn (WR Illinois) in this spot, but I like Eric’s consistency better and his leadership skills are more mature at this point so Eric squeezes past Arrelious.  Both should be excellent players.  Eric, because of his injury, has not been able to work out, which has affected his draft status, but remember I do all my profiles from the football season, not from workouts and pro days. I told you that I don’t profile based on hype!   

10) Linval Joseph – DT – Eastern Carolina – Linval is as big, strong and powerful as The Great Kong Suh from Nebraska.  The difference is that he has not played against the competition that Suh has played against and will be downgraded for that reason.  He is also in the infancy stage with his techniques and confidence in his overall play.  However, make no mistake about it, this kid has the talent to dominate at the next level.  Linval (like Suh) can play in any style of defense and multiple positions along the line.  If you don’t double team him in the passing game or running game, he will make you pay.  I’m not sure if Linval will get a sniff of the first round because he is more of a developmental player than Suh is at this point, but that does not deter me from listing him in my top ten.  I call him Baby Suh.   

11) Jerry Hughes- OLB – TCU – Jerry is a top ten talent but will have to move to a new position at the next level.  This will take a little time (but not very long) before he starts to dominate and become one of the best draft choices from this class. 

12) Arrelious Benn – WR – Illinois – Arrelious is an impact wide receiver waiting to happen, but he does need to become more consistent in all phases of his game.  He will do it and the team that drafts him is going to be very happy they did. 

13) Dan Williams – DT – Tennessee – is a pure Defensive Tackle that can play in any style defense (1-gap or 2-gap) or play nose guard in a 3-4 defensive system.  He is not a great pass rusher, but will push the pocket with the best of them.  I call him Dan (Real Time) Williams.

14) Gerald McCoy – DL – Oklahoma – Gerald is one of the quickest defensive linemen in this draft, but my feeling is his impact position is as a DE in a 3-4, 1-gap attack defense because of his lack of strength and immature pure Defensive Tackle 4-3 techniques.  This makes him a systems defensive lineman who will have to be drafted by the right team to impact.  (That team could very well be one of the top five teams in this draft.)  When Glen Dorsey (DL Chiefs) came out in the draft I did not consider him to be a top ten pick either.  I got hung in effigy that year!  I suspect I will be hung once again for not listing Gerald in this top ten.  Don’t worry, I will survive.   I may be thin-skinned, but I’m wiry. 

15 Earl Thomas- CB/S   – Texas – Earl is a talented, smart defensive back.  The truth is, I think Earl would be better suited at the next level as a cornerback than as a safety.  He does not possess the quick-twitch reaction time that you like to see in a CB who can play and defend against any size receiver.  However, he does have similar talent to Charles Woodson (CB – Packers).  I think if you are looking for a big corner that can shut down those big possession wide receivers and has the speed to go deep with just about any other kind of receiver, then Earl just might be your man.  Eric Berry (S Tennessee) is a very good safety, but his lack of wrapping up when he tackles is a big issue for me.  Eric has the speed to cover, but the truth is he likes the play in front of him to impact.  I just think because of his pure speed that Eric is being thought of as another Troy Polamalu (S Steelers).  To put it into perspective, Troy was the 16^th pick of the 2003 draft.  Maybe I’m being too picky, but I need my safeties and corners to be technically sound and wrap up when they tackle if I’m going to list them as a Top 10 pick.  You can’t have your safeties missing tackles at the next level.  Eric misses tackles at the college level and that will be magnified at the next level.  Troy Polamalu is a great safety because he knows how to wrap up and tackle.  By the way, Ed Reed was the 24^th pick of the 2002 draft.  There are other very good safeties in this draft that will impact as much as Eric is projected to impact. (I think it’s a good thing I’m wiry!)