Mock draft accuracy (last 5 years): 39.6% (33rd most accurate) • 2018: 32 of 96 – 33% correct (unofficial) • 2019: 30 of 96 – 31.25% correct (unofficial) • 2020: 36 of 96 – 37.5% correct (unofficial) • 2021: 50 of 96 – 52% correct (tied for 6th best) (unofficial) • 2022: 43 of 96 – 44.7% correct (tied for 23rd best)(official)
This is it, the final mock draft of 2023. The culmination of a years work of watching games, watching film, doing research and listening to professional analysts that have connections with scouts give there information and thoughts. I am not mocking any trades, but there are picks that are based on what team I think a player will end up with, rather than what spot they’ll go.
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS
BRYCE YOUNG, QB, ALABAMA
The Panthers seem to be battling between the top two QB’s. Ownership wants Young, the new coaching staff and GM wants Stroud. After giving Rhule too much power, David Tepper could overrule his new staff. This could also be smoke to lure the Texans into giving up too much to move up a spot and grab their guy. Young, who, despite his slender frame of 5’10, 204lbs (playing weight likely around 190), is a rarity in the NFL, and the way he sometimes welcomes defenders to keep a play alive as long as possible can be a bit scary. That aside, he has the most talent of all the QB’s in this draft, with his unfazed demeanor, vision, accuracy, and his mental processing, to which NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah, confirmed that Young scored the highest on the S2 cognition test with a 98, which measures how quickly athletes process information.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS
WILL ANDEROSN, DE, ALABAMA
The Texans are rumored to be out on Stroud here, so they really need to beef up their defense on the line and at outside-linebacker, and with DeMeco and GM, Caserio’s ties to Alabama, Anderson seems like the most likely and safest pick. He is the best pass rusher in the class will get the pick. Garnering 207 total pressures in his 3 years, with 42 hurries, 9 QB hits and tied for 1st with 13 sacks coming this season for the Tide. He’s explosive with a great spin move to get by tackles and enough speed to cover TE’s when out in coverage, but he has had some struggles in the run game that he’ll need to improve on.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS
TYREE WILSON, DL, TEXAS TECH
The Cardinals are a trade-down team and need fix a lot of things almost everywhere, look at this pick as a potential trade down selection. Wilson is a versatile player that has a relentless motor and freaky 35” long arms that he uses to his advantage to engage blockers. He could go as high as 2 or slip depending on how teams view how serious the foot injury is and can be in the future. He will need to develop more pass-rush moves to succeed at the next level, but he is still impressive as he put up 32 hurries, 10 QB hits and 8 sacks on the season with a 22.3% pass rush win-rate, which was top 10 in NCAA.
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
WILL LEVIS, QB, KENTUCKY
Colts GM, Chris Ballard has stated they will not trade up for the QB they want and according to Jeremy Fowler of ESPN, there is buzz league wide about the Colts selecting Levis at 4. On top of that, it’s rumored he did well with the Manning’s at their camp, which could lead Irsay to listen a little more intently. Levis has a howitzer for an arm, but needs to develop a better touch on the ball for better ball placement for his receivers. He has a history of running pro-style offenses under Liam Coen and Rich Scangarello at Kentucky, while also making pro-style adjustments at the line which will help for a quicker adjustment to the NFL. 2021 was better than 2022, but dealing with shoulder and finger injuries as well as turf toe and getting injections to play through the pain had a lot to do with some of those shortcomings.
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (via DEN)
JALEN CARTER, DT, GEORGIA
According to Richard Sherman, the Seahawks may be shifting back to the 4-3 defense after putting out the 25th ranked defense last season. If true, Dre’Mont Jones could play DE to let Jarran Reed and Carter feast in the interior. In 10 games with the ‘Dogs this season, Carter put up 21 tackles with 24 hurries, 5 QB hits and 3 sacks on a league leading 18.9% pass-rush win rate. He has elite quickness and agility with impressive lateral speed, but can take sloppy angles when pursuing. There are still some concerns out there about his work-ethic and coach-ability that could still make teams question him, but the talent is there.
6. DETROIT LIONS
DEVON WITHERSPOON, CB, ILLINOIS
The Lions did a lot of work in the secondary during free agency, bringing in Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton, and Emmanuel Mosley, while ditching Jeff Okudah to Atlanta. Mosley is only a one-year deal, so the position is still a need to be addressed. Witherspoon, played 80% of his snaps in man coverage last season with 560 of 795 snaps and a 95.0 PFF grade. He is feisty and plays with the physicality of a bigger player, and has great anticipation of coverage allowing 0 touchdowns with 14 pass break-ups and 3 interceptions. He was top-five in completion percentage allowed with 34.9%, and 28.6% in forced incompletions rating, while QB’s also only had a 25.3% passer rating.
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ, CB, OREGON
The Raiders have next to nothing at corner with David Long Jr and Duke Shelley. They really need to get that problem solved. Gonzalez blew up the combine with his speed, agility, and explosiveness skills, though he played 70% of his snaps in zone coverage with 436 out of 619 total snaps for the Ducks, he may have to adjust to the more man heavy defense the Raiders run. He has great natural instincts, ball tracking skills and is a willing tackler, but is still a bit of a work in progress by showing a bit more of a competitive edge at the catch point. Only 4 Career INT’s, all came in final season with Oregon and 2 of those came against his former team in Colorado.
8. ATLANTA FALCONS
NOLAN SMITH, OLB, GEORGIA
The Falcons have addressed parts of their defense that ranked dead last in sack percentage (3.6%) and second lowest QB pressure rate (22%) with David Onyemata, Calais Campbell, Kaden Ellis and the returning Lorenzo Carter. But could continue to address it in the draft with Smith who has a high motor flying off the edge with his 4.39 forty-yard dash at 238lbs with a similar prowess of Micah Parsons, but is coming off a shortened season because of a torn pectoral muscle, he was still able to get 2 sacks, 5 QB hits and 10 QB hurries.
9. CHICAGO BEARS
PARIS JOHNSON JR, OT, OHIO ST
The Bears were able to hit on 5th rounder, Braxton Jones in the ‘22 draft but have said that “he is the starting LT for now”, which could mean a potential move to RT if needed. The 6’6, 313lb Johnson has massive 36” arms and position flexibility that can be of high value, he gave up no QB hits, 12 QB hurries and 2 sacks in his 12 games as a starting LT this season, while giving up 1 QB hit, 13 hurries and 0 sacks in 2021 as the starting RG for the Buckeyes.
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (via NO)
PETER SKORONSKI, G, NORTHWESTERN
Eagles love to draft in the trenches, with Seumalo heading down the road to Pittsburgh, there is a need for an interior piece unless they feel comfortable with Cam Jurgens filling that role. But Roseman has a penchant for staying ahead of the curve and drafting for the future. Skoronski’s 32-1/4” arms will kick him inside to guard in a similar situation that all-pro guard, Zack Martin faced in the past since the ideal arm length teams look for in a tackle is 34”. Skoronski has improved every season, only allowing a 1.3% pressure rate with 1 sack, 2 QB hits and 3 hurries while facing Big 10 defenses.
11. TENNESSEE TITANS
ANTHONY RICHARDSON, QB, FLORIDA
Tannehill turns 35 in July and the with the Titans in serious rebuild mode and his guarantees gone, the Titans can move on from him either this season and free up $17 million in cap space or wait until next season where he only costs $9m against the cap. Richardson has freakish athleticism sets him apart from most, he’ll need to learn better footwork and how to put touch on the ball instead of throwing bullets on every pass which could increase his completion rate of 53% and his abysmal 28.2% uncatchable pass rate, which are throws that are not the fault of anyone but him, was the 7th highest in all of college football.
12. HOUSTON TEXANS (via CLE)
C.J. STROUD, QB, OHIO ST
There’s no way the Texans leave the first round without a QB on their roster. This is a potential trade up spot, or he could actually slide and land here. The Texans could use Stroud pin-point accuracy at all three levels. He likes to do his damage within the pocket, but has shown that he can make plays with his legs when he needs to.
13. GREEN BAY PACKERS
LUKAS VAN NESS, DL, IOWA
The Packers lost Jarran Reed this off-season and tied for 5th fewest sacks in 2022, partly due to Rashan Gary’s injury. The need to find another guy to run along side Clark and Wyatt is pretty high. Under GM, Brian Gutekunst, the Packers have a history of taking young elite athletes that score over a 9.0 RAS, at premium positions in round 1 and “Hercules” hits every tick with being a versatile player that can play on the line or on the edge at 21 years of age with a 9.35 RAS, 34” arms, and some elite speed and agility. He may have one of the best bull rushes in the class and is great at stopping the run, which is something the Packers desperately need, garnering 13.5 TFL’s with 9 sacks, 31 hurries and 6 QB hits this season for the Hawkeyes on a limited role only playing 50+ snaps in a game, once.
14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, WR, OHIO ST
The Patriots added Smith-Schuster this off-season, but there is still a need to improve the receiver room even more. The Rockwall, TX native ran a decent 4.52 forty, has great ball skills and showed off his excellent route running skills during the combine with an elite 6.57s 3-cone and 3.93s 20-yard shuttle. He also has soft reliable hands, only 24 incompletions when thrown to, and a knack for getting open. He’ll play his best in the slot, but has the skill-set to survive outside if needed. Former teammates Garrett and Olave believe he is better than them.
15. NEW YORK JETS
DARNELL WRIGHT, RT, TENNESSEE
Mekhi Becton has dropped weight and looks poised for a comeback to anchor the line at LT, and there’s still a pressing need on the other side. While Wright is dealing with some possible character concerns with how he’s treated the media, he has played both LT and RT for the Volunteers, he played much better this season at RT, giving up 0 sacks, 2 hits and 6 hurries for an impressive 1.7% pressure rate, which included a shut-down performance vs top 5 draft pick, Will Anderson.
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
EMMANUEL FORBES, CB, MISSISSIPPI ST
The Commanders were 28th in interceptions during the 2022 season with 9, four came from safety Darrick Forrest, and three from CB1, Kendall Fuller. Emmanuel Forbes has long arms and great jumping ability along with good instincts which led to 6 picks, 9 pass break-ups and only a 20% completion rate in man-coverage, which is lowest among all FBS corners. All 6 picks came from man coverage, where he only allowed 3 catches in 209 snaps. He also finished his career with 14 total interceptions, 6 of those being pick 6’s in 3 years as a starter, which is the most in FBS history. He does struggle a bit in zone where 28 receptions and 3 touchdowns came from 382 snaps.
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
BRODERICK JONES, OT, GEORGIA
Steelers added Isaac Seumalo to the interior, but Sri need to address OT with Dan Moore and Chuk Okorafor still currently slated to be the starters. The Steelers will likely be a trade up team to get their guy. Broderick has a lot of upside with a mean steak and loves to punish defenders, but only has 13 games of starting experience. In those 13 games, he allowed 0 sacks, on 7 hurries with 2 QB hits this season in the SEC for the ‘Dogs.
18. DETROIT LIONS
BIJAN ROBINSON, RB, TEXAS
D’Andre Swift has not been who they wanted him to be and is in the final year of his contract. Even after adding David Montgomery to a $6m a year deal for 3 years, the position could still be an area to improve since Montgomery can also be moved on from next year as well. Bijan is the best back in the class who has a skill-set similar to Saquon Barkley with his 39% broken tackle rate. He showed off his speed and shiftiness at the combine by running elite times of a 4.46s forty yard dash, 2.58s 20-yard split and a 1.54s split while sitting at 215lbs.
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
ANTON HARRISON, OT, OKLAHOMA
The Buccaneers are moving Tristan Wirfs to LT now that Donovan Smith is no longer with the team, and Brandon Walton is currently slated to be the starting RT. Harrison can play RT unless they feel like he would be better at LT and keep Wirfs on the right side. Harrison did a great job of keeping defenders off his QB, using his great arm length of 34” to only allowing 3 sacks, 1 hit, and 22 hurries, during 2 full seasons as the starter for the Sooners.
20. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
JORDAN ADDISON, WR, USC
Seahawks don’t run a lot of 3 wide sets, but that could be because they don’t like their 3rd WR enough to make that adjustment. Addison may have some issues vs the press and is going to be a slot only WR. He has great play speed to stretch the field with outstanding cutting ability and change of direction skill as a route runner to easily get himself open. He will need to clean up the concentration drops, only 2 this season but 21 the last two in Pittsburgh. Finishing the year with 59 catches for 875 yards, 23 of those came from schemed screens. WR Legend, Steve Smith believes he’s much better than the performance at USC last season.
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
DALTON KINCAID, TE, UTAH
Gerald Everett didn’t do as well as the Chargers had hoped, so getting Herbert a more improved weapon at the position in a contract year just seems like the right move to make. Kincaid had a big year in Utah, leading all TE’s with 70 catches for 890 yards and 8 TD’s, both 2nd among TE’s. Despite not testing due to an injury, he has good playing speed and is the best pure catching TE in the class, though he may get dinged for turning 24 during his rookie year and not being a very good run-blocker.
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS
DEONTE BANKS, CB, MARYLAND
With Marcus Peters unsigned, the current starting CB opposite Marlon Humphrey is former safety, Brandon Stephenson who only has 4 career starts at the position. Deonte Banks posted a ridiculous 10.0 RAS score showing off his elite speed running a 4.36s forty, with an incredible 42” vertical and 11’ broad jump that helped him get 13 pass break-ups and only 1 interception. He is also very good at route recognition and is a willing, physical tackler, only missing 1 tackle on the season for the Terps. He also surrendered 4 touchdowns on 26 catches in 2022, while QB’s had a 71.4 QB rating when throwing his way.
23. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
HENDON HOOKER, QB, TENNESSEE
The Vikings don’t have a lot of draft capital so they could be looking to trade down several spots. GM, Kwesi Adofo is rumored to really like Hendon Hooker, and with Cousins contract being moveable after the 2023 season, having the next QB on the roster would be a win. Hooker sustained a torn ACL during the 2022 season, but was still able to put up 3135 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions in Tennessee’s super spread offense. He also added over 2,000 rushing yards and 25 rushing touchdowns in his five year career at West Virginia and Tennessee.
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
MYLES MURPHY, DL, CLEMSON
The Jaguars have done a lot of work during this draft looking at defensive linemen. Out of their top 30 visits, they looked at 6 that would be available or close to available for them in the first round, not including guys they could get in round two. Murphy is a versatile player that can win with speed and power, which produced 21 hurries, 7 QB hits and 6 sacks this year for the Tigers, with 20 career sacks. He has been dominant all 3 years, but the only down side is that he has not really shown much improvement from year to year and may have reached his peak already.
25. NEW YORK GIANTS
JOEY PORTER JR, CB, PENN ST
The Giants had a lot of issues in the secondary last season, and Adoree Jackson is set to hit free agency after this season, so the Giants really need to address that area. Porter has a great ability to locate the ball and using his 34” arms and 81” wingspan, he had 12 pass break-ups and led all owner 5 corners with 40% forced incompletion rate and gave up 0 TD’s in 2022, but also only has 1 interception in his collegiate career. Despite this, his 4.46 forty has gotten him into some trouble at times not keeping up with speedy receivers, causing 13 penalties over the last two seasons.
26. DALLAS COWBOYS
MICHAEL MAYER, TE, NOTRE DAME
The Cowboys let Dalton Schultz walk in free agency, and while some fans think Ferguson and Hendershot are good enough to be the next guy, they are not. The Cowboys are rumored to be enamored by the second coming of Jason Witten, Michael Mayer, who is the most complete inline-TE in the draft and also one of the best contested catchers. He has a great burst and quickness shown in his 20-yard split of 2.71, but doesn’t have breakaway speed with a 4.7 forty yard dash. He’s also a good and willing blocker.
27. BUFFALO BILLS
QUENTIN JOHNSTON, WR, TCU
The Bills really need to get Josh Allen another target to throw to outside of Stefon Diggs. Gabe Davis is so hit or miss and after that it’s Khalil Shakir and Trent Sherfield. Johnston could provide an extra weapon that is completely different from what they currently have. Despite his 6’3, 208lb frame, Johnston plays a more finesse style that has caused him to struggle against contested catches where he was 8 for 23 for a staggering 34.8%, for reference 5’9 UNC WR, Josh Downs was 13 of 18 on contested catches. For a guy his size with a 40.5” vertical and 11’ broad jump, you’d expect a little better than that. He has big play potential because of his ability to avoid or break tackles. He has a good start-stop ability to get open downfield but has a very limited route-tree along with a drop issue (8 in 2022) that stems from not trusting his hands and catching with his body.
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS
MAZI SMITH, NT, MICHIGAN
The Bengals have put some serious money into their defensive line. With DJ Reader coming into the final year of his contract, the Bengals could look to refortify the position and Mazi Smith could be that answer. He is a massive lane clogger at 323lbs and showed off his strength at the combine by doing 34 reps of 225lbs on bench. He totaled 43 pressures, 31 QB hurries, 11 QB hits and 2 sacks as a rusher, and 65 tackles with 51 stops as a run defender for the Wolverines.
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (via DEN, MIA, SF)
CALIJAH KANCEY, DL, PITTSBURGH
The Saints made some moves replacing Onyemata and Davenport with Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd but the defensive line could still use a bit of an upgrade with Carl Granderson, who can easily be moved on from to free up more cap space. Kancey mostly played at the 3t, garnering 17 sacks, 49 QB hurries and 19 QB hits, as a starter for the Panthers over the last two seasons.
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
ADETOMIWA ADEBAWORE, DL, NORTHWESTERN
With Robert Quinn and Javon Hargrove gone, plus Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham only under contract for the 2023 season, the defensive line needs some help for the future. Roseman is rumored to be infatuated by Adebawore, who’s stats may not look exciting, only having 11.5 sacks, 23.5 tackles for loss and 4 forced fumbles over the last three seasons as a full time starter, he wreaked havoc at the senior bowl and shined at the combine putting up some great numbers.
31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
ZAY FLOWERS, WR, BOSTON COLLEGE
The Chiefs may not be looking for a replacement to Tyreek, but if they were, Flowers is that guy. There is a possibility they trade up to make this selection. As both the Chiefs and Zay seem to want to match up. Despite his small size at 5’9, 182lbs, Zay played both inside at the slot and on the outside, distinguishing himself as a moveable weapon much like Tavon Austin at West Virginia collecting 1,077 yards on 78 catches with 12 touchdowns. Though he does have an issue with drops that he’ll need to clean up, 9 in 2022, 24 in his career.
